Empoli 5–3 · 3 pts from 0.51 expected (W 14% D 10% L 77%) SS Juve Stabia 4–1 · 3 pts from 2.86 expected (W 94% D 3.7% L 2.3%) Bari 5–3 · 3 pts from 2.68 expected (W 87% D 5.7% L 6.8%) Catanzaro 5–4 · 3 pts from 1.48 expected (W 44% D 16% L 40%) Monza 8–5 · 3 pts from 2.10 expected (W 66% D 11% L 23%) Modena 4–1 · 3 pts from 2.51 expected (W 80% D 10% L 10%) Padova 3–1 · 3 pts from 2.52 expected (W 81% D 9.2% L 10%) Cesena 5–2 · 3 pts from 2.20 expected (W 69% D 14% L 17%) Reggiana 3–2 · 3 pts from 2.70 expected (W 88% D 7.0% L 5.4%) Entella 5–0 · 3 pts from 2.89 expected (W 95% D 3.7% L 1.2%) Südtirol 3–4 · 0 pts from 2.56 expected (W 83% D 7.9% L 9.5%) Empoli 3–6 · 0 pts from 0.52 expected (W 14% D 9.2% L 76%) Venezia 5–3 · 3 pts from 2.75 expected (W 90% D 5.9% L 4.4%) Mantova 5–5 · 1 pts from 2.53 expected (W 81% D 9.0% L 10%) Monza 5–4 · 3 pts from 2.23 expected (W 71% D 11% L 18%) Sampdoria 6–1 · 3 pts from 2.58 expected (W 83% D 9.4% L 7.9%) Latium 4–2 · 3 pts from 1.79 expected (W 54% D 18% L 28%) Carrarese Calcio 2–1 · 3 pts from 1.51 expected (W 45% D 16% L 39%) Avellino 4–3 · 3 pts from 2.45 expected (W 78% D 11% L 11%) Empoli 2–8 · 0 pts from 0.06 expected (W 1.2% D 2.0% L 97%) Venezia 2–1 · 3 pts from 0.79 expected (W 22% D 15% L 64%) Mantova 4–2 · 3 pts from 2.62 expected (W 85% D 8.1% L 7.2%) Sampdoria 4–2 · 3 pts from 1.45 expected (W 43% D 17% L 41%) Juventus 4–6 · 0 pts from 0.51 expected (W 14% D 10% L 77%) 2026/27 Parma 3–0 · 3 pts from 2.86 expected (W 94% D 4.0% L 2.0%) SSC Napoli 3–0 · 3 pts from 1.63 expected (W 48% D 20% L 32%) Milano FC 2–2 · 1 pts from 2.09 expected (W 65% D 14% L 21%) Fiorentina 3–2 · 3 pts from 1.68 expected (W 50% D 17% L 33%) Como 3–0 · 3 pts from 1.55 expected (W 44% D 22% L 34%) Venezia 8–0 · 3 pts from 2.96 expected (W 98% D 1.3% L 0.6%) Bologna 2–1 · 3 pts from 1.92 expected (W 59% D 15% L 26%) Venezia 4–3 · 3 pts from 2.48 expected (W 80% D 9.0% L 11%) Hellas Verona 2–4 · 0 pts from 1.25 expected (W 35% D 20% L 45%) Cagliari 5–2 · 3 pts from 1.54 expected (W 47% D 14% L 40%) Lombardia FC 5–4 · 3 pts from 0.89 expected (W 24% D 16% L 60%) Bergamo Calcio 3–1 · 3 pts from 2.43 expected (W 77% D 12% L 11%) Juventus 2–5 · 0 pts from 1.08 expected (W 32% D 13% L 55%) AS Roma 1–6 · 0 pts from 0.70 expected (W 19% D 12% L 69%) Torino 4–5 · 0 pts from 2.41 expected (W 77% D 9.1% L 13%) Sassuolo 1–2 · 0 pts from 2.33 expected (W 74% D 12% L 14%) Juventus 3–5 · 0 pts from 0.43 expected (W 11% D 9.4% L 79%) Genoa 6–2 · 3 pts from 2.03 expected (W 63% D 14% L 23%) Udinese 3–1 · 3 pts from 1.81 expected (W 55% D 16% L 29%) Sampdoria 8–3 · 3 pts from 2.63 expected (W 85% D 6.3% L 8.3%) Latium 3–0 · 3 pts from 1.41 expected (W 41% D 18% L 41%) Sampdoria 6–1 · 3 pts from 1.68 expected (W 51% D 14% L 35%) Udinese 3–5 · 0 pts from 1.60 expected (W 48% D 15% L 37%) Milano FC 6–11 · 0 pts from 0.83 expected (W 24% D 12% L 64%) 2025/26
48 matches, oldest first · +15 points against expectation · the screen's xG is scaled by 0.67 first, because across 48 matches both sides scored 324 from 487 xG
